How Facebook Analytics Predicted the 70,000 Leni Kiko Turnout

Leni Kiko drew 70,000 at the Paglaum Stadium in Bacolod, Negros Occidental – March 11, 2022. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

Written by

Jude Bautista

Seeing the results of Pulse Asia’s most recent survey released March 15, 2022, isn’t as surprising as people think it is. The survey itself is from the period of February 18-23, 2022. With Bongbong Marcos having 60% while Leni Robredo has 15%, Isko Domagoso at 10%.

So many intervening events have happened since then such as the continued absence of Marcos from interviews and debates. And the tens of thousands that have attended the rallies of VP Leni and Sen. Kiko Pangilinan in the most vote rich regions of the country.

Hug in Kidapawan,, North Cotabato March 15, 2022. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

For example, just two days after the survey period Leni Kiko’s rally (on February 25), was 40,000 people strong at the Iloilo Sports Complex. It started off a series of rallies that have also attracted tens of thousands: 47,000 at the Gen. Trias Sports Park, Cavite. Then on Monday, March 7, they were able to attract another 45,000 at the Malolos City Hall Open Grounds, Bulacan.

Leni Kiko drew 70,000 at the Paglaum Stadium in Bacolod, Negros Occidental – March 11, 2022. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

70,000

Then no one could have predicted the outpouring of love and support for VP Leni Robredo and Sen. Kiko Pangilinan on March 11, 2022. An estimated 70,000 people filled the Paglaum Stadium in Bacolod, Negros Occidental. The estimate is from the Provincial Administrator.

Leni Mobile had the distinct Masskara flair of Bacolod – March 11, 2022. Thousands lined the streets even after the event. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

But if rally goers along the road and streets, leading to the venue were counted as well the number could be much higher. As even after the event, Negrenses waited to catch a glimpse of Leni Kiko on the Leni Mobile. A truck was converted to allow her to meet and ‘press the flesh’, while sporting a Masskara design reminiscent of the Fest Bacolod is known for.

Sharon Cuneta spoke in Ilonggo at the Paglaum Stadium in Bacolod, Negros Occidental – March 11, 2022. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

More Recent and Accurate Measurement

In order to have a clearer picture of support for candidates, the data has to be more recent, up to date if you will. A bigger sample of ‘respondents’ would also help. That’s why, at least on these two metrics, Facebook Analytics may be more reliable than surveys. There are 93 million Filipinos on Facebook, while Analytics / Data on their likes, preferences can be observed live or up to the minute. Surveys on the other hand have a lag between when they were conducted and actual release of data ( just as in the case of Pulse Asia).

From left: PINOY SCIENTIST host Guido David and Certified Big Data Analyst Wilson Chua, March 6, 2022.

Luckily, Guido David on his radio show PINOY SCIENTIST, had as its guests two experts in the field of Analytics: Wilson Chua and Roger Do. The show was aired on RADYO AGILA (DZEC 1062khz) last March 6^th, and the data they revealed was until March 2, more than a week after the survey of Pulse Asia – (Feb 23). The Pulse Asia survey respondents totaled 2,400, while the FB data is based on 50 million social data points. There are 93 million Filipino FB users subtracted by underage users (not qualified to vote), equals 50 million.

Wilson Chua, who is also a Technology Columnist for Manila Bulletin, wrote, “ We believe it is possible to get a better “pulse”. Using more than 50 million social data points, our analysis reveals a much tighter race. A Leni victory over BBM is very possible, with only minor tactical changes needed from Leni’s campaign team.” From MB: Can you guess the next Philippine President?

Qualified Opinion

Apart from being a columnist, Chua is a Certified Big Data Analyst. And earned a Singapore Computer Society Gold Medal Award upon completion of his Master’s degree in IT business Continuity Management, from the National University of Singapore back in 2012. He also founded Future Gen International Limited.

From left: PINOY SCIENTIST host Guido David and Autopolitic Founder Roger Do, March 6, 2022.

Roger Do finished his degree in Philosophy and MBA in UC Berkeley. He added a degree in Computational Linguistics from Taiwan. He founded Autopolitic, a political consultancy firm that uses big data, social networks analysis to help people win elections. They have so far run 90 campaigns across Asia, in 5 countries.

Big data is a phrase that describes large, hard-to-manage volumes of data. Such as the statistics of user behavior in social media platforms (like Facebook).

Do claims, “In Malaysian election 2014, we were only one of two surveys that predicted Malaysian politics would change to Mahathir. And everybody was surprised when he did. We have an understanding of how to use social media to help campaign. And how to use social media to understand the situation. The big problem of the campaign is there’s no good way to know if you’re winning or losing. We provide that gap for campaign with data. We live to run campaigns. That’s the most exciting part of our social life right now.”

Leni Kiko drew 7,000 strong crowd in Gen Santos City, March 15, 2022. Bailiwick of rival candidate Manny Pacquiao. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

Larger Engagements for Leni

Chua was able to project a trend that Leni would get more supporters as time went on. He expounded on this during the radio show, “Speaking of data, you need to have a model. And here we are seeing the model of prediction. We’re seeing that sentiment is an early indicator of voter preference. So you can see here (February 12-17) although Leni had a higher sentiment than BBM, in the surveys and in the engagement score, Leni was still behind. BUT THEN this sentiment translated in the future. Where you see by March the engagement scores flipped. Now here, if our model is correct, you can see this widening gap in net sentiment. What does this do? IF the correlations are correct it predicts an even larger engagement score for Leni, in the coming weeks.”

Graph by Wilson Chua

The ‘coming weeks’ phrase corresponds to the week that resulted in Leni Kiko rallies that churned tens of thousands of supporters. The statement is remarkable considering that, all other surveys had BBM ahead by at least 30-40 percentage points. Their interpretation of FB data, could be an empirical explanation of the large numbers of supporters showing up. More importantly, they project Leni on an upward trend greatly exceeding BBM, whose numbers are more likely to plateau.

Leni Kiko drew 70,000 at the Paglaum Stadium in Bacolod, Negros Occidental – March 11, 2022. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

Engagement and Net Sentiment

The two based their observations on Facebook data because, that’s the social media platform most preferred by Filipinos. Twitter, Instagram have far fewer Filipino users.

Engagement and Net Sentiment are defined in fb terms. Roger explains, “Engagement is how each person interacts with each campaign. They’re not exclusive. People who interact with Leni can interact with BBM. But these are how the campaigns are engaging the public and voters.”

Graph by Wilson Chua

Wilson defines sentiments as, “ More positive sentiments bode well for the candidate. Conversely, more negative sentiments spell doom for them as well. Here, we track users’ reactions to the candidates’ posts as well. We use the emoticons LOVE, SAD and Angry. Interestingly, this paints a much closer battle. Net sentiment tracks the cumulative social sentiment change (positive-negative social sentiment) over time. Higher net sentiment indicates that potential voters would likely vote for the candidate.”

Leni Kiko drew 7,000 strong crowd in Gen Santos City, March 15, 2022. Bailiwick of rival candidate Manny Pacquiao. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

Leni Overtakes BBM

As early as February 12-17, Wilson observed that Robredo had scored higher a sentiment rating, which to them is a more important factor. Then by March 1, Leni started to overtake BBM in engagements, “What we see now is pretty exciting and is a bit of a scoop. Starting March 1, we see the lines reverse. VP Leni is now ahead of BBM. You can see that on the chart… And now VP Leni is on top.”

Graph by Wilson Chua

Host Guido David interprets the chart, “She overtook the line of BBM. Now the situation has reversed. Looking at your data. From a 5% deficit it has now turned into a 5% advantage. Of course we are interested to see if this will be reflected in the upcoming surveys of the major firms. Which I believe they will have this time in March maybe April.”

Impassioned VP Leni supporters pulled in swing voters. Photo from https://www.facebook.com/VPLeniRobredoPH

In simpler terms, more impassioned supporters are able to pull in undecided or swing voters for VP Leni. They see this as a continuing trend, March 1^st, was the date they consider Leni pulling ahead of BBM. This is also evident in the thousands of volunteers contributing in VP Leni’s campaign in various ways.

For example this music video was produced, edited by volunteers, musicians, filmmakers. Check out description on Youtube for full credit that includes ANG BABAE SA SEPTIC TANK director Marlon Rivera.

LENI TODA

Debate Debacle

As to why Leni overtook BBM’s numbers both Wilson and Roger agree that it may be attributed to Bongbong’s deliberate absence in interviews and debates. Wilson said, “Remember BBM did not participate in interviews and debates at Jessica Soho and CNN. CNN as of yesterday had 2.7 million views for that segment. That is a major strategic blunder, in my opinion for the BBM camp.”

Host Guido David acknowledged the significance of that theory, “ That’s quite a statement… I asked the Twitter followers if they think the interviews and the debates are important for them to determine who they will vote for. About 80% said ‘yes its important’. Now you’re saying that it is. Not just for Twitter followers but maybe for the general public. And it’s actually hurting the campaign of BBM more than they thought it might.“

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Roger was able to explain it by going back to the beginning of the campaign period, “So if you remember BBM started very strong. Very professional campaign, he needed to show COMELEC he’s a serious candidate. That you cannot disqualify without consequence. What happened is BBM’s support plateaued back in October. We already know how much votes he can get. So he can only lose votes throughout the campaign.”

Graph from Autopolitic

Swayable Voters

Roger believes BBM’s absence in debates gave other candidates an opportunity, “Not participating in debates, doing his own thing, basically just gave other candidates a place to take over his weaker followers. BBM can only lose votes throughout the campaign. Unless he has a very imaginative package. Whereas Leni was slowly building up. And she was doing all the traditional stuff correctly. SO strategically, I think BBM didn’t participate because he knows the debates are not gonna help him. It can only hurt him. That’s why he does his own private thing.”

CNN Philippines left a podium empty for Sen. Bongbong Marcos during the Presidential Debate last Feb 27, 2022, UST, Manila.

“He didn’t realize how much voters were actually swayable. Based on Wilsons’s analysis out of the debate data. So he can only lose voters while Leni can gain. So strategically that was a big blunder by his campaign. It was a strategy issue not just engagement or exposure. People who were excited about him displayed their preference to online data, so he’s not gonna gain anymore,” added Roger.

VP Leni Robredo, humarap sa iba’t ibang isyu | Jessica Soho Presidential Interviews

Too Close to Call

All three of them agree that the race is still too close to call. Another consensus was that no means of prediction is infallible. Roger laughingly said, “We have the inalienable right to be wrong.”

Wilson concluded (his column) by reminding everyone:

Not all voters are users of Facebook
Not all Facebook users are registered Philippine voters.
Not all positive sentiments will translate to votes
Not all reactions are authentic. Data privacy restrictions prevent verification of Facebook accounts.

Running Totals: Social Sentiment — Net is a cumulative report of the net positive Facebook reaction since Oct 1, 2021. IT shows Leni having a substantial lead ever since November.

PINOY SCIENTIST on RADYO AGILA (DZEC 1062khz)

Guido David, Wilson Chua, Robert Do — March 6, 2022 episode

Click on link to view video:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=349184273770793

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